1pm games:

Miami Dolphins (0-12) vs. Buffalo Bills (6-6)

Location: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo, NY

The Bills pulled of a good win last Sunday from a field goal by Kicker Rian Lindell with 0:04 left in the game against the Redskins.  The Dolphins, all they do is lose, so there’s no need to go into what they did last weekend.  I’ll just give you a hint:  they didn’t beat the Jets. 

The Bills are in the #8 spot in the AFC for the moment and after Sunday, their next 3 games will be the test that shows whether or not this team is a few moves away from being a contender. The Bills have the Browns, the Giants and the Eagles after this Sunday. Dolphins have a world of work ahead of them and this game is the best chance for them to avoid going defeated for the season. The Dolphins have the Ravens, the Patriots, and the Bengals after this Sunday.  It will be interesting to see which path these two teams take with 3 weeks left in the season.

The Bills have the better numbers across the board.  The Dolphins, collectively, is a team that’s banged up and incomplete.  With a chance for a playoff spot a stake, the Bills will come into Sunday’s game looking to continue their campaign for the post season.

My Pick: Bills

St. Louis Rams (3-9) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)

Location: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH

The Rams season may have been over by Week 8, but they will not die.  The winners of 3 of their last 4 games, it looks as though the Rams have decided to go out with their guns-a-blazing.  The Bengals just stink.  With 8 teams sitting with a record of .500 or better in front of the Bengals, their season is all but done.  So, why wouldn’t I make this game my “I Could Care Less” game for the week?  That’s because both teams have very explosive offenses and very weak defenses.  This just may be one of the highest scoring games, combined, for the season.

This game is not for the defensive minded fan.  Throw that out of the window right now.  Both teams like to look for the shootout.  But, the win will go to the Bengals.  The reason why, Marc Bulger is out, Gus Ferrotte is out.  In order for the Rams to be explosive, they need their complete team and with Bulger out, the leadership of on team is in question.

This is the Bengals’ game to win.  The defense on both teams are banged up and depleted.  With that in mind, the Bengals offense is much better than the Rams defense and will take to the air on every opportunity to put numbers on the board.  As impressive it has been to watch the Rams duke it out with their opponents for the last 4 weeks, this is the weekend where the Rams will go down for the count.

My Pick: Bengals

Dallas Cowboys (11-1) vs. Detroit Lions (6-6)

Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI

The Lions are ranked 18^th in offense and 31^st in defense overall.  The Cowboys are ranked 2^nd in offense and 8^th in defense overall.  You do the math.  The Lions have been in a decline for the past month and their chance for a playoff spot is all but gone.  The Cowboys are the winners of 6 straight games and they have a chance of winning their remaining 3 games before the playoffs.  The Cowboys’ offense is too balanced for the Lions.  The real story behind the game is the war of word between QB Jon Kitna and CB Terence Newman. 

Kitna called out the Cowboys’ defense last season after a 4 TD performance in a 39-31 win over the Cowboys in the teams’ season finale last season.  Newman didn’t forget. 

“Basically what it boils down to is you've got to watch what you say. Your mouth can't write checks that your (expletive) can't cash. That's what it comes down to; everybody's going to see those quotes. He better just hope I don't blitz off the edge, because I've got 15, 25, 30 (thousand dollars), however much it would be for a fine. I've got that much for one fine. Revenge will be sweet definitely."

Ray Anderson, Executive V.P of Football Operations for the NFL, responded to Mr. Newman’s warning:

“Be advised that your comments will now compel us to carefully monitor your activities in this weekend's Cowboys-Lions game.  As you know, flagrant fouls may subject a player not only to fines, but to suspension as well. So conduct yourself accordingly."

I don’t know about you Mr. Anderson, but I don’t think your response will make any difference in this Sunday’s game.  The Lions’ O-line is weak and with the way the Cowboy’s defense has been playing lately, Mr. Kitna may find himself on his back for the majority of the game. 

My Pick: Cowboys

Oakland Raiders (4-8) vs. Green Bay Packers (10-2)

Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

The Raiders could have had a decent team this year if they had an offense.  Although their record is 4-8, they have the 19^th best defense overall and the 5^th best passing defense in the league.  Too bad their offense is ranked 30^th overall in the NFL. 

Packers QB and 2007 S.I. Sportsman of the Year, Brett Farve, did practice this week and is scheduled to go this Sunday, after suffering an elbow injury at the hands of the Cowboys in the Thursday Night Game last week.   

The Packers defense is ranked 15^th in league, but that doesn’t matter.  With the Raiders’ weak offense, the Packers should be able to shut down anything the Raiders throw at them.  The thing to look for in this game is how the Raiders will shut down the Packers’ passing game.  The Packers have the 2^nd best passing defense in the league. 

This Sunday, the Packers have to incorporate the run game into the offense to give Farve’s arm a rest and not focus on the passing game so much.  But, if the Raiders can force the Packers to run the ball, they have a good chance for the win because the Packers have the 31^st ranked rushing offense.  It’s time for the Raiders’ rush defense to step up this weekend just like they did last weekend in the win against the Broncos.

The Packers haven’t played since Nov. 29^th.  They’ve had 10 days to rest and to give Farve’s arm an opportunity to heal. A Farve at 80% is still dangerous and since the Raiders’ offense isn’t the greatest, the Packers have this game won    

My Pick: Packers

San Diego Chargers (7-5) vs. Tennessee Titans (7-5)

Location: LP Field, Nashville, TN

Both the Chargers and the Titans are sitting at 7-5 with the playoffs in sight.  This would have been the “Game of the Week”, but there’s something going on at holds precedence over this game.  We’ll get to that later.  The Chargers have the lead in the AFC West, their offense is clicking and the defense is starting to earn their keep.  The Titans are 1-3 in their last 4 games and slowly fading out of the playoff picture. 

The team that wins this game will have to be the team with the better defense.  The Chargers’ defense is ranked 20^th while the Titans’ defense is ranked 5^th in the NFL. The Chargers’ offense is ranked 21^st while the Titans offense is ranked 22^nd.  Although the Chargers have the better players on offense, the Titans defense has been relentless this year and they have the better ability and coaching on the defensive side of the ball to shut down the Chargers’ offense.

My Pick: Titans

NY Giants (8-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)

Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

The Eagles were the 2^nd team to feel the wrath of the G-men when the Giants started their 6 games win streak early this season.  The Giants won the first match-up, 16-3.  That was back in Week 4 in the Sunday Night Game when the G-men went “sack happy” and tied an NFL Record of 12 sacks.  Both teams are 2-2 in their last four games. The Giants’ playoff chances are getting greater each week due to the weakness of the NFC.  The Eagles are pretty much out of the playoff picture and are now in the role of spoiler.

The match-ups to pay attention to in this game are the O-lines vs. the D-lines for both teams and the run game for both teams.  The Eagles’ offense hasn’t forgotten about the Week 4 match-up, so they’re looking to shut down the Giants D-line immediately. The Giants’ O-line has been very inconsistent and hasn’t allowed QB Eli Manning time to execute the play. It’s important that the Giants’ O-line plays smart football and avoids any mistakes that can result in a penalty. 

Eagles’ RB Brian Westbrook did not play in the first meeting, so he’s looking to make up for that absence in this match-up.  Unfortunately for the Giants, RB Derrick Ward is out for the year and Brandon Jacobs is listed as probable.  So their run offense is a little shaky.  Only time will tell if the Giants rush offense will heal up in time for the playoffs.

Although the defense for each team is solid, the Eagles’ O-line seems to be more reliable than the Giants.  This weekend, the Eagles get their revenge.

My Pick: Eagles

Carolina Panthers (5-7) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)

Location: ALLTEL Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

Despite the loss to the Colts last weekend, the Jags are still in good position for the playoffs as a Wild Card team.  The Panthers won their 1^st game at home this season in a win against the 49ers.  With each team coming in this game on a win, momentum is riding high.  Unfortunately, the Jags need this win more than the Panthers and it will show this Sunday.

Whichever team can run the ball effectively will win this game.  By the numbers, the Jags have the edge.  The Jags are ranked 2^nd in rushing offense and their defense is ranked 9^th against the run.  The Panthers are ranked 13^th is rushing offense and their defense is ranked 17^th against the run.  Bottom line, the Jags have the better RBs with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew and with Drew on Special Teams, the Panthers chances of winner this game are very slim.

My Pick: Jaguars

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-4) vs. Houston Texans (5-7)

Location: Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX

The Bucs have the NFC South on lock.  The rest of the teams in the NFC South are struggling and it’s the Bucs’ division to lose.  The Texans’ flame burned out back in Week 6 and is 2-5 for their last 7 games.  It’s time for the Texans to start thinking about the off-season.  Their year is done.  Bucs’ QB Jeff Garcia sat out of last week’s game with a back injury.  He’ll be a game time decision.  Texans QB Matt Shaub is still out with an injured shoulder, so Sage Rosenfels will get the start. 

The Texans defense is beat up and their offense is just as worse.  The Bucs defense is similar to that of the Cowboys because they keep improving each week as we head into the post season.  The Bucs’ defense is ranked 4^th overall in the NFL.  This game will be a test for that defense since the Texans are ranked 10^th overall in offense.

All signs are pointing to Garcia playing this Sunday.  With the Bucs’ offensive catalyst returning this Sunday, the Texans defense will have a difficult time trying to slow down this high-powered offense.

My Pick: Buccaneers

4pm games:

Minnesota Vikings (6-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-9)

Location: Monster Park, San Francisco, CA

The Vikes are currently holding on to the last playoff spot in the NFC.  The winners of their last few games, the Vikes got stronger last weekend with the return of RB Arian Peterson.  Peterson tore up the Lions weekend.  He ran for 116 yards on 15 carries and scored 2 TDs.  He picked up right where he left off before his injury.  With 3 games to go before the post season, he couldn’t have come back at a better time for the Vikes. 

After giving the Panthers their first home win for the season last weekend, the 49ers season is all but done.  Although the NFC is weak overall, there’s no way they could possibly think about the playoffs and need to start thinking about the off-season.  Just a suggestion: the “Alex Smith” experiment is not working.  It’s time to move on.

There are numerous match-ups to look at in this game.  The one I’m looking forward to will be the Vikes’ offense vs. the 49ers’ defense, especially Peterson vs. LB Patrick Willis.  Both players have been standouts for their team in their respective positions.  We’ve seen what Peterson can do, but did you know Willis leads the league in tackles?  He has a total of 128 tackles this season.  100 of the tackles are solo.  Not bad for his rookie year.

The Vikes lead the league in rushing and the 49ers are ranked 27^th against the rush.  Unless everybody on the 49ers’ D-line morphs into Willis, Peterson and the Vikes will run up and down on the 49ers for the win.

My Pick: Vikings

Arizona Cardinals (6-6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (8-4)

Location: Qwest Field, Seattle, WA

Believe it or not, this is a big game for both of these teams.  If the Seahawks win, they will extend their lead in the NFC West.  If the Cards win, then they would have won the season series between themselves and the Seahawks.  That win will the deciding factor if both teams finish the season with the same record in the NFC West. 

The Cards need to win this game and the thing to watch is the Cards’ run game against the Seahawks’ rush defense.  QB Kurt Warner and his top WRs, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, are banged up with Boldin and Fitzgerald as game time decisions this Sunday.  That’s going to force the Cards to run the ball against the Seahawks’ 14^th ranked rush defense.  By the way, the Cards are ranked 25^th in rushing the ball.  Vengeance will belong to the Seahawks this Sunday.

My Pick: Seahawks

Kansas City Chiefs (4-8) vs. Denver Broncos (5-7)

Location: Invesco Field, Denver, CO

I’m going to say it right know so you don’t have to wait until the end of this, the Chiefs will lose.  You don’t need numbers for this one.  The bottom line is that the Chiefs have been playing the “QB Shuffle” all year along and it hasn’t worked.  Just ask the Falcons. 

I don’t believe in constant QB changing in the middle of the season.  In one of the previous posts, I mentioned that a team should “dance with who got them to the prom.” The Chiefs have gone from QB Damon Huard, to QB Brodie Croyle, back to Huard and now we’re back to Croyle.  Enough already. 

Football players are creatures of habit and when a coach keeps switching the teams’ leaders the same amount of times they change their socks, it throws off the consistency.  Without chemistry, the Chiefs will not win this game.

My Pick: Broncos

Game of the Week:

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) vs. New England Patriots (11-0)

Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA

This game will feature the #1 defense (Steelers) against the #1 offense (Pats).  This just may be the best game of the season right here.  Both the Eagles and the Ravens gave football fans an idea on how to beat the Pats, but that theory is not conclusive due to both of those teams losing their respective games.  No matter what any of the previous teams have thrown at the Pats, they have continued to find ways to pull out the win.  Well that ends this Sunday. 

Let’s be honest, both of these teams have been squeezing out wins for the past few weeks.  The Steelers have won 3 of the last 4 games and the Pats have won…well you know what the Pats have done, just look at the record. 

The Steelers have seen what the Eagles and the Ravens did in the last 2 weeks.  Now they have to take that and multiple it by 20.  They have to keep blanketing Randy Moss and keep going after Brady.  The difference between the Steelers and the previously mentioned teams is that the Steelers have the weapons to turn up the defense and bring it to the Pats. 

This is going to be a great game and it can go either way. As much as I have wanted to see the Pats go undefeated for historical purposes, it looks like it’s the end of the road for immortality.

My Pick: Steelers

Cleveland Browns (7-5) vs. NY Jets (3-9)

Location: Giants Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

Both of these teams’ defenses are in the bottom of the NFL.  So this game is going to come down to the offenses.  With that in mind, the Browns have this game won.  Considering the fact that the Jets are out of the playoffs and the Browns are in the middle of a playoff chase, this is a perfect time for the Jets to play spoiler and get back into the good graces of the N.Y. fans.  But that’s easier said than done against the Browns’ high scoring offense.

The reason why the Jets will lose is because they do not have the players on defense that can hang with the Browns’ offensive weapons through the passing game.  The Browns are ranked 4^th in points, averaging 28 points a game.  This is from a team who averaged 14.9 points last season.  What a difference a year makes.

The Browns have the last playoff spot in their sights and this weekend, the Jets will be victims of the Browns’ Bomb Squad. 

My Picks: Browns

Sunday Night Game:

Indianapolis Colts (10-2) vs. Baltimore Ravens (4-8)

Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD

What do the Colts and Ravens have in common? They both lost to the Pats.  Other than that, there is nothing else similar between these two teams.  Both teams have gone in different directions this season.  But the Colts will win because they are a complete team.

The Colts are similar to the Pats and other great teams because they know how to fill in the gaps.  The Colts have been plagued with injuries like most of the league, and have adjusted well with solid, “lunch pail” players.  Players like WR Reggie Wayne, who has had to step up in the absence of WR Marvin Harrison, the reason why the Colts have been successful this season.  Those are the type of guys who will keep making this team a contender each year. 

The Ravens defense is weak this year.  They haven’t played to their potential this year and they know it.  On offense, the team is banged up and it’s too late in the season for any repair. With the Colts being the complete team that they are, the Ravens can’t blame anyone but their selves in this lose.

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